Kizza Besigye holding a spear and a shield gesturing as a worrier-like in Kitgum municipality as locals cheer him up. Photos by Arnest Tumwesige
By Arnest Tumwesige
Kitgum: Col. (Rtd) Kizza Besigye in a Question and Answer media interview with Ivan Okudi, published on Vox-populi, an online media on February 23, 2021, said he had no intention of becoming president of Uganda,
However, his current actions speak differently.
While in Kitgum Municipality over the weekend, Besigye beseeched Ugandans to entrust him with the responsibility of leading them to a peaceful overthrow of the current government.
Through his popular “Power Ten”, a pressure group strategy that he wants to develop at the village/cell level, Besigye said if there is unity, it has the potential to change the government.
He explained that, the process to get rid of the government can start today, tomorrow, next month, or next year, whether or not there is an election.
“So, we want Museveni to command his guns, and if you allow me, I will command those without guns and we shall face each other and see who defeats the other,” Besigye emphasized.
Putting the version of commanding those without guns into context, Dr. Besigye explained that during COVID-19 lockdown, Museveni restricted people from moving until another pronouncement was made.
He added that the COVID-19 experience can be applied where, by for instance restricting farmers from selling food stuff like cassava. This move, he said, would be enforced by the “Power Ten” in the village under his command.
“I can assure you that in one week, those with guns will have no food. And they will know that they are not going to have food unless what we want is done. Even before we ask them to do anything, the hungry soldiers will arrest Museveni themselves,” Besigye noted.
In the crafting of this strategy, he is, however, aware that it cannot succeed unless the whole country first understands what he claims to be a “failed” government that has been in power for the last 40 years.
How tenable is this strategy?
Ass. Prof. Daniel Komakech told GNNA that agitation is a diplomatic procedure, provided it is within the law.
“It is up to Ugandans to see whether he [Besigye] has a point or not,” Komakech said.
Komakech, the head of the Institute of Research and Graduate Studies at Gulu University, explained that unlike Thailand and Singapore which are islands and are easy to control, Uganda isn’t.
He argued that Uganda is a hinterland comprising villages where the majority of people live and cultivate crops, and it is hard to control them.
Komakech instead challenged the population to start thinking strategically to improve their per capita income, which will in turn boost the country’s Gross Domestic Product.
“Let’s ask ourselves, those who are rich, were they given free money? The government’s role is not to give money but to cook food and give it to all people. The government’s role is to provide an enabling environment like peace, and education which enhances citizens’ skills development. What are we doing for Uganda? Are we productive or are we just seated in our villages waiting for handouts?” he asked.
Meanwhile, Wilson Chagga Oyat the FDC General Secretary of Gulu City, believes Besigye’s strategy can succeed only if there is vigorous training and sensitization about the “Power Ten”, and close collaboration with other opposition political parties.
Oyat, who is aligned with the FDC Najjanankumbi faction, asked Besigye to first focus on addressing the internal party challenges using the procedures laid down in the constitution so that there is a uniform flow of information across the country.
Florence Lanam, the Coordinator of the FDC Katonga faction in Northern Uganda, told GNNA that from Besigye’s experience, it is very hard to win through an election but to file a petition in court in case of a loss.
“We are doing a mobilization to bring a big number of people to agree that we need to take our country with or without an election…for example, we all decide to close our doors, our offices or shops, and then before you know it, there will be nothing to eat. We are saying this because we have seen it happen in other countries in Africa,” Lanam explained.
Is FDC counting on its “membership and support”?
According to Worldometer, a website that provides real-time statistics and counts on a range of topics including population, Uganda’s population has reached 49.9 million.
But, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics estimates it at 42.7 million people as of 2020. In 2014 when the National Population and Housing Status did a census, the country’s population was about 34.6 million people.
Experts estimate that the country’s productive age which ranges from 18 years to 64 years, contributes to about 19.6 million people whom Besigye is partially targeting.
Additionally, the Electoral Commission report for 2020 shows that there were 17,658,527 voters in Uganda. Out of these, 9,218,963 representing 52.21% were female.
There are 26 political parties in Uganda. The FDC, which was formed in December 2004, has had an opportunity to contest in five general elections with Besigye contesting first in 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. Patrick Amuriat Oboi, the current FDC party President, contested in the 2021 elections.
In 2006, 2.5 million Ugandans voted for Besigye, representing 37.39%. In 2016, he got 3.5 million voters, and in 2021, Amuriat garnered 3.4 % of the total valid votes cast.
It is hard to establish the exact number of FDC party members in the country due to current internal conflicts. In the current 11th Parliamentary for instance, the Acholi sub-region has a total of 28 Members of Parliament (MP) out of which 05 are from FDC.
In the Kitgum municipality consultative meeting that brought together party structures from Kitgum, Pader, Agago, and Lamwo districts, Dr. Besigye was accompanied by Betty Aol Ocan the woman MP of Gulu City, and Denis Onekalit Amere the MP of Kitgum Municipality.
Patricia Adokorach, a 30-year-old resident of Gang-dyang in Kitgum Municipality who was at Christ Center ground, the venue for the consultation, doubts whether Besigye is going to change anything in the current political landscape.
Adokorach argued that since Besigye has been on the political scene for a long time, recommending a new political party formation by some members may not yield fruit.
Betty Aol Ocan described Besigye as a robust opposition who needs to come back and stand for the needs of the people.
During the engagement, John Komakech Ogwok from Lamwo presented a joint memorandum of the four district party leaders with an emphasis on fostering reconciliation with the party.
Komakech also pointed out the need to undertake reforms by creating a new party in case reconciliation cannot be achieved.
